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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid annual and outburst components



This has been an interesting discussion as rates are important to me. I
am planning to travel to Europe to view the Leonids this year. I have
felt all along that 99 would be the big year and that the travel
expenses would be justified. Now with new information it appears
possible that strong Leonid displays could continue through 2002 and
than 1999 may be less than extraordinary. Now there is a thought in my
mind that I could be wasting my time and money by traveling? If I were
traveling to a land where I had no local personal contacts then I just
might have pulled the plug and tried for another year. The fact is that
I will be meeting (some for the first time) some of my IMO comrades and
that is more than enough for me to continue with this venture.

As Marco stated we won't really know until after the fact so lets all
hope for clear weather and skies full of Leonid meteors no matter where
you are situated!

Bob Lunsford


Marco Langbroek wrote:
> 
> Rob, Joe and others,
> 
> I think it is little use going over and over discussing what might happen
> in November and what complexities are involved. Better to wait now untill it
> all has happened. Joe; I must admitt that I am very impressed by the work
> of Asher and Rob and collegues; especially their extremely good
> historical fits. Personally, I have some very good fait in their
> predictions, more than I have in any other model prediction. However Rob;
> I simply do not want to downgrade the importance of perhaps slightly
> different results from historical analysis such as Joe is doing, given
> that your models are still not proven, it are at the moment just models
> that fit existing data but of which the predictive value still has
> to be proven. My advise to anyone; keep your eyes open all hours that the
> Leonid radiant is above the horizon on November 16-17, 17-18 and 18-19,
> whereever on this world you are; and don't be surprised if it all turns
> out different than any person involved in the predictions for
> upcoming apparition had expected.
> 
> I remember how confident we all were (including me) for the 1998
> apparition. Yes, the peak time of the narrow peak was correct and
> activity nice; but it didn't do what it was supposed to do.
> 
> So lets just wait what coming November has in store for us and start
> mugging each other on details afterwards.
> 
> 1% or 100% of 1966 rates; it will satisfy me anyway as long as the skies
> are clear. To me, that's more of a concern.
> 
> - Marco
>
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