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(meteorobs) Asher/McNaught Leonid model predictive value



Hi Rob, Hi all,

Rob, having just read your long reply to Joe (boy, you almost dug your 
hole so deep that I can hear you scratching the dirt under my feet here 
in The Netherlands!), I must say that you are right in your remark that 
the historic fits of your model in a sense are proving the model's 
predictive value (so I take back part of my reply I send in earlier). But 
so apparently do for example William's and Wu's model, who also get good 
historical fits but quite different results from it.

As for historic ZHR values (including 1966), I personally doubt the 
validity of almost all of them given the many uncertainties and lack of 
pertinent information like limiting magnitude etc. for most historic 
reports. This has bearing on the historic 'test' of the model predictions.

Anyway, in a Popperian sense, all things remain to be proven and have the 
potential to be falsified anytime   ;-)

Sure hope that Popper doesn't join forces with Murphy next November!   ;-)

I really learned not to bet my money with last years' Leonid return (the 
only reason I didn't have to pay Peter Bus his 'Beerenburg' (Frisian 
traditional alcoholic drink) was that he equally was wrong with his 
prediction); but if I had to bet, my money (but certainly not ALL my 
money!!!) would be on 2:08 UTC for coming November 17-18 (but with enough 
savings left just in case that...). About the ZHR, I really wouldn't dare 
to bet at all....

- Marco Langbroek
  Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)
  The Netherlands

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