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(meteorobs) Re: Leonid annual and outburst components




Rob, Joe and others,

I think it is little use going over and over discussing what might happen 
in November and what complexities are involved. Better to wait now untill it 
all has happened. Joe; I must admitt that I am very impressed by the work 
of Asher and Rob and collegues; especially their extremely good 
historical fits. Personally, I have some very good fait in their 
predictions, more than I have in any other model prediction. However Rob; 
I simply do not want to downgrade the importance of perhaps slightly 
different results from historical analysis such as Joe is doing, given 
that your models are still not proven, it are at the moment just models 
that fit existing data but of which the predictive value still has 
to be proven. My advise to anyone; keep your eyes open all hours that the 
Leonid radiant is above the horizon on November 16-17, 17-18 and 18-19, 
whereever on this world you are; and don't be surprised if it all turns 
out different than any person involved in the predictions for 
upcoming apparition had expected.

I remember how confident we all were (including me) for the 1998 
apparition. Yes, the peak time of the narrow peak was correct and 
activity nice; but it didn't do what it was supposed to do. 

So lets just wait what coming November has in store for us and start 
mugging each other on details afterwards.

1% or 100% of 1966 rates; it will satisfy me anyway as long as the skies 
are clear. To me, that's more of a concern.

- Marco
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