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- To: Ray548Ti@aol.com
- Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial 10-Day Forecast - 23Oct-01Nov
- From: Cary Oler <oler@holly.cc.uleth.ca>
- Date: Thu, 22 Oct 1998 03:14:58 -0600 (MDT)
--- WEEKLY SOLAR TERRESTRIAL 10-DAY FORECAST --- October 23 to November 01, 1998 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada T0K 2E0 FAX: (403) 756-3008 E-Mail: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu --------- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE ---------------------------------------------------- |10.7 cm|HF Propagation +/- CON| Mag| Aurora | |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|K Ap|LO MI HI| --|-------|-----------------------|----|--------| October 23| 115 |VG G F F 20 -05 75|3 12|NV NV LO| 24| 115 |VG G F F 25 00 75|2 10|NV NV LO| 25| 117 |VG G F F 30 00 75|2 08|NV NV LO| 26| 118 |VG G F F 30 00 70|2 06|NV NV LO| 27| 118 |VG G F F 35 00 70|2 06|NV NV LO| 28| 120 |VG G F F 40 00 70|2 08|NV NV LO| 29| 122 |VG G F F 40 00 70|3 12|NV NV MO| 30| 122 |VG G F F 40 00 65|2 10|NV NV LO| 31| 122 |VG G F F 40 00 65|2 10|NV NV LO| November 01| 122 |VG G F F 40 00 65|2 08|NV NV LO| Explanatory Notes for the Above Table ------------------------------------- This table shows the predictions for most of the critical parameters, in terse format. First column is the date. Second column is the predicted solar flux for the next 10 days. Third through sixth columns represent predicted HF radio propagation conditions for the LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and POlar latitude paths, where BO represents BlackOut conditions (essentially useless propagation), VP represents Very Poor conditions, P represents Poor conditions, F means Fair conditions, G is Good (normal) propagation, and VG is Very Good conditions. The seventh column shows the probability of daylit circuits being affected by flare-induced short wave fadeouts. The eigth column shows the predicted global MUF level as a percentage above or below expected normal levels (ex. +10 means the MUF on that date could be 10 percent ABOVE-NORMAL, whereas a 00 means the MUF should remain at normal levels). The ninth column is the confidence that the forecasts for the given date are accurate (100 means the forecasts will be 100 percent accurate, and 50 means there is a 50 percent chance the forecast will be accurate). The tenth column shows the predicted peak planetary geomagnetic K-index for the given day. The eleventh column shows the predicted 24-hour planetary geomagnetic A-index. And the twelfth through fourteenth columns predict the level of auroral activity that will be visible from the LOw, MIddle and HIgh latitude regions, where NV means Not Visible, LO means LOw levels of auroral activity may be visible, MO means MOderate intensity auroral activity may be visible, and HI means HIgh levels of auroral activity may be possible to observe. PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (23 OCT - 01 NOV) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE | * | | | | | | * | | | | NONE | | UNSETTLED |** |** |** | * | * |** |** |** |** |** | NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70% HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (23 OCT - 01 NOV) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | * | * | | | | * | * | LEVEL | FAIR | **| **|***|* *|* *|***| **|***|* *|* *| ------- | POOR |* |* | | | | |* | | | | 65% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | * | * | * | * | | | * | * | CONFIDENCE | GOOD |***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|***|***|* *|* *| LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| CONFIDENCE | GOOD |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |* |* | LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 75% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 30 deg. S. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (23 OCT - 01 NOV) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | * | | | | | 65% | LOW |***|***| * | * | **|***|***| **| **| **| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 75% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 90% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- ** End of Report **
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