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(meteorobs) Fwd: Weekly Solar Terrestrial 10-Day Forecast - 23Oct-01Nov




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              ---  WEEKLY SOLAR TERRESTRIAL 10-DAY FORECAST  ---
                       October 23 to November 01, 1998

                Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                   P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
                                   T0K 2E0
                             FAX: (403) 756-3008
                       E-Mail: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu

                                  ---------

             SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
             ----------------------------------------------------

                |10.7 cm|HF Propagation  +/- CON| Mag| Aurora |
                |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
              --|-------|-----------------------|----|--------|
      October 23|  115  |VG  G  F  F  20 -05  75|3 12|NV NV LO|
              24|  115  |VG  G  F  F  25  00  75|2 10|NV NV LO|
              25|  117  |VG  G  F  F  30  00  75|2 08|NV NV LO|
              26|  118  |VG  G  F  F  30  00  70|2 06|NV NV LO|
              27|  118  |VG  G  F  F  35  00  70|2 06|NV NV LO|
              28|  120  |VG  G  F  F  40  00  70|2 08|NV NV LO|
              29|  122  |VG  G  F  F  40  00  70|3 12|NV NV MO|
              30|  122  |VG  G  F  F  40  00  65|2 10|NV NV LO|
              31|  122  |VG  G  F  F  40  00  65|2 10|NV NV LO|
     November 01|  122  |VG  G  F  F  40  00  65|2 08|NV NV LO|

                    Explanatory Notes for the Above Table
                    -------------------------------------
This table shows the predictions for most of the critical parameters, in
terse format.  First column is the date.  Second column is the predicted
solar flux for the next 10 days.  Third through sixth columns represent
predicted HF radio propagation conditions for the LOw, MIddle, HIgh, and
POlar latitude paths, where BO represents BlackOut conditions (essentially
useless propagation), VP represents Very Poor conditions, P represents Poor
conditions, F means Fair conditions, G is Good (normal) propagation, and VG
is Very Good conditions.  The seventh column shows the probability of daylit
circuits being affected by flare-induced short wave fadeouts.  The eigth
column shows the predicted global MUF level as a percentage above or below
expected normal levels (ex. +10 means the MUF on that date could be 10
percent ABOVE-NORMAL, whereas a 00 means the MUF should remain at normal
levels).  The ninth column is the confidence that the forecasts for the given
date are accurate (100 means the forecasts will be 100 percent accurate, and
50 means there is a 50 percent chance the forecast will be accurate).  The
tenth column shows the predicted peak planetary geomagnetic K-index for the
given day.  The eleventh column shows the predicted 24-hour planetary
geomagnetic A-index. And the twelfth through fourteenth columns predict the
level of auroral activity that will be visible from the LOw, MIddle and HIgh
latitude regions, where NV means Not Visible, LO means LOw levels of auroral
activity may be visible, MO means MOderate intensity auroral activity may be
visible, and HI means HIgh levels of auroral activity may be possible to
observe.


PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (23 OCT - 01 NOV)
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE | * |   |   |   |   |   | * |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |** |** |** | * | * |** |** |** |** |** | NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|

                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%


HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (23 OCT - 01 NOV)

                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   | * | * |   |   |   | * | * |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR | **| **|***|* *|* *|***| **|***|* *|* *|
 -------   |           POOR |*  |*  |   |   |   |   |*  |   |   |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   | * | * | * | * |   |   | * | * |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|***|***|* *|* *|
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |*  |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
            --------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
        NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
   Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.


AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (23 OCT - 01 NOV)

                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |            LOW |***|***| * | * | **|***|***| **| **| **|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   75%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------

                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   90%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------


**  End of Report  **

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